Case Study
Our client was interested in conducting policy research to pressure-test U.S. spending predictions for novel therapies – the question for Medicus was: “How accurate have U.S. spending predictions been over time for novel therapies?”
Our team collaborated with our client to identify key therapeutics areas where published U.S. spending predictions could be compared to actual sales data over time. We conducted a literature review to identify all published spending estimates in these treatment areas, and gathered and analyzed publicly-available financial data to compared predicted vs. actual spending. We further evaluated reasons why predictions might have deviated from actual spending.
Finally, we conducted primary research with U.S. payers to validate findings from our research based on their own plan’s experience.
Results from our analyses helped to highlight differences between predicted vs. actual spending in key treatment areas. Our findings have helped to support our client’s hypothesis that some past spending predictions have over-estimated true treatment costs in the United States.
Our analysis helped to show that spending predictions for novel pharmaceutical therapies have been significantly higher than actual spending.